I admit it, I'd like an iPhone. But I didn't ask for one for Christmas this year. Why? The speculation is that Apple's exclusive contract with AT&T ends about the end of the year and that Verizon will start offering iPhones maybe as early as January. Cringely points out that Apple will have to come out with a new model of iPhone, to do that since the current iPhone only works on GSM networks and Verizon used CDMA. So the iPhone that will appear at the first of the year will be dual-mode to work with either carrier. iPhone users are notoriously unenthusiastic about AT&T's network. Cringe says that about 10 million of these users will have their AT&T contracts expiring in the first part of next year. How many of these will want to jump to Verizon? 10%? 25%? If only 10% do, that's one million users. But wait! They can't just jump to Verizon. They'll have to buy the new dual-band iPhone to jump. What will they do with their old GSM iPhones? Junk them? Give them away? Sell them? The current 16Gb iPhone4 goes for $600 new. There's 2,215 of them on sale on eBay, going for between $400 and $500 each. What happens when the better part of a million people want to unload their iPhones? My guess is the price on eBay will drop to between $200 and $300. At that point I'll ask Santa to bring me a belated Christmas gift of a nice used iPhone4. Stay tuned. We'll see if it pans out.

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